Spec I am still holding MOY my shares, but should have sold when...

Spec

I am still holding MOY my shares, but should have sold when it went for a run to around 24 cents in October. I am surprised that it has sold off this badly. I guess after the stuff-ups elsewhere punters are taking a show me attitude towards MOY (and others). It is possible that not too much will happen to the share price until they have completed the plant upgrade next quarter and its shown to be doing its job processing the sulphide ores.

Perhaps a small run could take place in January if they meet the December quarter forecasts. I added to my holding at 17.5 cents recently. I am not sure what the market will ascribe to MOY's mine life once the upgrade is competed, but I doubt it will be more than 7 years, and could be a lot less.

I have no idea about any M&A expansion plans by MOY.

I would note that while MOY has a reasonable resource/reserve it may only be profitable if they can mix the lower grade stuff with higher grade material, so continued exploration success of higher grade ore is crucial. The plant seems to be working well - currently around 2mtpa capacity. My assumption is that MOY will remain a higher cost operator and my big hope is that a lower AUD will make it fairly profitable company. However, be prepared to be disappointed with many ups and downs and perhaps its best just to trade it as some have done successfully in October.

RMS had a very good drill announcement in recent weeks so perhaps their Mt Magnet operations will do well for a few more years. It is the operations they bought from EVN that are questionable - the Edna May mine open pit is pretty low grade and this needs blending with higher grade material to feed the plant. There is also considerable capex required on the EM mine. They have some other ore sources, including possibly from EXU acquisition. I have bought back in as a trade in the hope that it goes for a run (looks like I am ahead there for the time being). It may turn out OK if the expansion plans work out. If you want the low down on RMS's EM mine then read some of Eshmun's posts on the RMS/EXU threads.

I do not hold SLR at present but have traded it many times in the past. If the DRM M&A was not in progress and the share price was under 50 cents it would be worth a punt. I have not been a fan of DRM in the past (never owned it), and can not see the benefit to SLR shareholders from the merger. Maybe they have very prospective tenements (I dunno). SLR has a good cash stash which will get diluted by this merger. I will revisit SLR's situation at a later stage after the merger.

Good luck with your speculating in 2019.

loki