I'm predicting that gold is going to get smashed in the short...

I'm predicting that gold is going to get smashed in the short term. Largely due to monetary policy convergence between developed countries and the tightening of easying.

I'm taking a big risk in taking the stance that it won't last. Basically negative yields means that bond investors are chancing capital growth as yield decline further. But when that reverses you have 2 options for your bond position. Either hold until maturity and take your sub or near zero yields or sell for a loss.

There's also been concern building g over the last 2 years about liquidity in the bond market. Making it hard for institutional investors to fill large orders. If that tide changes and a lot of bonds hit the market as people try to exit their negative yield positions we could see a crash in the bond market.

In any case a lot of cheap money has been floating around. Share buy backs and leveraging into real-estate hasn't created any notable growth in the real economy.

If you look at unemployment, not as the rate that's published, but from the perspective that we've reached a record in the growth of our population and have a steady decline in the number of hours worked. More people working more jobs but less hours.

Government spending is unsustainable at 30% of GDP. Australia is running a t $40B p.a. deficit with no end in sight. The total public debt is near $550b.

Political deadlock and a dominate regressive left preventing the hard discussions on reform mean that there is no obvious way out.

Net foreign debt is over $800B, when are our foreign creditors going to call that in?

I don't see a rise in rates as a good thing for the global economy. If the money we printed over the last 7 years was invested in the real economy, in business in some way that way create a greater capacity to service it, I might think differently.