Imo, even if IND is totally pulled away by all parties in a very...

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27/04/18

18:10

Post #: 32730448
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Originally posted by The Meister ↑

Gentlemen..

On the subject of finance..
MB is on record advising that each individual CNG project will be financially independent of both other CNG projects and of the parent company, GEV itself. On that basis each project will almost certainly be financed separately by debt and not equity.. I anticipate that when both the ABS Final Approval and buyers are in place, banks will be competing with each other for the business and the NPVs will be seriously in the black.

On the subject of the USA and Trump..
This is something to watch in the short run although in the long run it wont matter.

The Iranians are involved as intermediaries in the sale of gas to India because IMO (and I'm trying to be diplomatic now) the Indians' historical form in long term ventures is not as strong as some Western nations. Put simply, their timely compliance will likely be much better if they are required to pay the Mullahs in Iran as opposed to a portly, 70yo Aussie bloke who looks more like TV's Matlock everyday.

That said, there are two deadlines rapidly approaching in relation to clauses in the Iran Nuclear Deal (IND):
* on the 12th May the American President will decide whether to sign off for another 6 months of status quo or whether to renegotiate or whether to walk away from the Deal entirely. Trump has given notice to the world that the 12th of May is a pivotal decision point. If he withdraws the USA from the deal (which would be supported by strong allies) that will likely initially impact oil sales and the associated transactions though Iranian banks.
* July 11 presents a potential further escalation of trade sanctions in the broader Iranian economy.

However, there are allowances in IND for exceptions. Further, the region of the proposed Iranian port is subject to trade concessions of itself. So the devil will be in the detail. But ... Trump may yet successfully renegotiate some critical terms of the Deal (which in my mind is favourite). Even in a worse case scenario from a GEV perspective there is no deal breaker here .. in this instance we are ultimately selling gas to Indians not Iranians. It was a piece of brilliant innovation to engage the Iranians as intermediaries and I have faith in MB and his team to solve any problems if they arise.

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Imo, even if IND is totally pulled away by all parties in a very unlikely case, the Indians and Iranians will continue the business like before when the sanctions were in place. Indian banks keep the oil and gas money in their country and give Iran credit to buy Indian products, no USD is involved here so no issue for us either

GEV Price at posting: 32.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Imo, even if IND is totally pulled away by all parties in a very...

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