Certainly no probs with the xts being real OS. In fact as should be noted a trade is a trade and obviously that trade has taken out some of the resistance at this bracketed level.
I say bracketed as its typical high and low buys and sells designed purely to get weaker hands, or as u say OS, the bagger profiteers to hit that sell button. As chatted about tho the other day the buy side sees no need to match the strength of the sell side implying they know what the sell side is likely to do.
This brings us to the gap up on the Toho annmnt.
Given the potential cash injection of 90M as well as the impressive NPV, which may well be improved on by a significant margin in the near future, the recent gap up is looking more solid by the day. The soak continues between 30 and 32 which establishes a strong support at this level.
I am now strongly of the opinion that the mms are on a mission here which is not hard to get ones head around. Some will have differing opinions on how this is likely to play out but ultimately it may well not be the very strong project numbers that determine just how high this companies MC will go but its high gearing to the lead price.
The technical requirements for a successful gap up rerate are fairly obvious. What is not so obvious is the model that the mms will use to continue the rerate as long as the required mm catalysts are forthcoming.
Lead for its part is playing its game well with continued buying at around 2100 which should do create support for the lead price. The important thing is that eventually lead contracts at this price will dry up and this is likely to happen sooner rather than later given the rate the stockpile is being drawn down. However one needs to be careful here as many of these commodities will see big short term dumps of hoarded stockpiles which can put a dent in the commodities technicals.
My interest in the Pb price is just what its likely to do to Abras value in the medium to long term. It has the potential to drive the sp much higher given what the PFS sensitivity analysis shows, and IF the updated PFS is as strong as BO has it then the sensitivity to the Pb price is that much higher again.
Chartwise, stochs are coming back into the normal range. Volumes are in the typical reducing cycle post a large volume event but we may see one more little intraday shakeout. Much depends on how the mms want to play this out and if on screen depth is anything to go by, which it usually isnt, then the
32/32.5 resistance may not be long for this world espc given that xt yesterday late and its implications be they fomo or not.
Anyway, patiently waiting. But the converging of the important fundamentals for G1A is tantalising. They may play out, they may not. But a big part of the puzzle was put in place with the Toho anmnt the other day.
There are quite a few ways Abra can still value add here and is more than likely too imho, whether they be project related or commodity/market related.
Gr.
G1A Price at posting:
32.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
