To be frank, the more I read the PFS and compare to the SS there wasn’t a great difference, just a firming in the + or - minus to 25% PFS as against 35% SS. Given, the PFS was due mid year from recollection I am now questioning the 2021 construction start date. To be frank, if AVL actually puts its mind to it and actually addresses the DFS, Offtakes for equity, financing and approvals as a total process (rather than completing one and then starting the other which is what it seems to be doing) IMO they should be starting construction late 2019 early 2020 at the latest (not 2021).
IMO, and as I said on a few occasions VA needs to focus on entering the market in the now by targeting steel and put on ice all these presentations etc etc he does on batteries (they come later). Some focus on entering the market rather than spreading yourself thinly is required, and a project manager with that KPI (and only that KPI) is required - get into production to target the steel market is the KPI, and it will certainly aid the IRR as I previously posted on this thread. Like yourself, I have seen projects in my time been fast tracked to mining, but this slow progress is a concern. Suspect TMT got hammered today as well because with the slow progress for AVL it also removes any synergy benefits for TMT in any potential sharing of infrastructure like gas pipelines with AVL etc. Both TMT and AVL need to sought out there differences and aim to be in production by the 2nd half of 2020 at the latest.
What VA needs to do in the now in the next month is get a plan in place around what is required to get to market by end 2020, full stop. He also needs to work out who he should be giving any of the options not exercised to, and that should be given an entity who will ultimately be a buyer of vanadium IMO. If he is incapable of that then someone who can is required.
All IMO IMO IMO
AVL Price at posting:
2.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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