More a case of that high prices persist because there is no new...

More a case of that high prices persist because there is no new supply and that existing mines can't ramp but once the first ones do come on, the prices moderate and the high case NPVs that people bank one will never come to fruition (side note this set expectations too high and results in more disappointment if this gets up). The outside risk comes from the likes of a SYR adding circuits for V and selling at any price (if it can meet spec which is another story). By-product supply is the worst. Also, my understanding is that V batteries are more sensitive to the price of V than most other types and the longer higher prices persists, the more it kills its own long term demand driver to support high prices (this is what AVL will tell an investor that asks). I think speciality minerals are more susceptible to wild swings on more moderate changes to demand/supply imblance.

Why is it important to me an not assume prices can't or won't go lower? This then feeds into funding. Even if history doesn't repeat, the financiers won't care and won't fund it based on a rosy scenario 3 or 4, they will test it on scenario 1 and maybe 2. I don't think the first will cut it and the second is 50/50 enough.