AVL 7.14% 1.3¢ australian vanadium limited

PFS to me looks mostly solid, but 3 very key points contributed...

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    PFS to me looks mostly solid, but 3 very key points contributed to the drop IMO (on top of general crappy sentiment to small caps)
    -capex (it is relatively large for a junior mining project, even though it is within expectation)
    -time to production (with not that many delays this appears 4 years+ from production)
    -sale price (unfortunately despite the current supply/demand dynamic that many may believe will lead to higher sustained prices for many years to come, those with big money and able to finance this in the most favourable manner to holders won't assume this to be the case unless the story gets much more compelling)

    I feel this PFS is very robust and conservative technically, leaving room for improvements on the 3 items above, the key to progress and share price appreciation will be executing the plan to exceed the current expectations this PFS has set. Getting favourable funding is a must and hopefully Win-Win or/and another party are willing to come to the table soon enough as I don't think traditional avenues will be as forthcoming. Obviously on top of funding all permitting needs to be done asap and this may be largely out of the company's hands to allow construction to start ASAP.

    There is definitely more scope here for the company to out deliver this PFS than most I've seen, but these are the numbers that will be crunched by those with the $$$'s and more often than not these studies despite being conservative, don't go smoothly to plan. If management can execute I can see things turning around, but for the time being there will likely be some doubts on the project, especially the near term.

    Those with bigger pockets will be substituting in conservative numbers. Hopefully the company and all in the space can prove that this isn't the case as the vanadium story looks very compelling for several years to come. It isn't about the flow batteries but steel at the moment and more focus needs to be put on this.
    Last edited by dunny29: 19/12/18
 
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