No. I did the same thing a while back and was a bit shocked how bad these estimates have become. It looks like the analysis was too aggressive on legislation forcing uptake of low energy higher cost LED bulbs. Additionally the tech has matured with bulbs lasting longer and probably using less. Gorilla glass and other competition also heavily dented HPA upside in these reports from 2012-2014.
I don’t think we will find any report that you can hang your hat on. HPA market is micro and industrial spec, a single company or country could completely change the demand dynamic in years to come. This does make prediction difficult in fairness. Some uses are probably opaque at the high end as well. I’m still very bullish on demand, for example the market for HPA in batteries has only really just starting to take hold and LED bulbs will continue to pick up market share. The barriers to bringing on HPA supply are high regardless of the feed source as well.
