This seems to me to be pretty weak analysis. Of the 4 key...

This seems to me to be pretty weak analysis. Of the 4 key programs ASB is a part of or may be a part of:

1. LCS - no new purchases after 2019 so this revenue stream will end and certainly start to slow after 2020.
2. USN FFG - ASB is only one of 5 contenders and no favourite let alone a certainty of winning the highly competitive tender
3. EPF - No new purchases this year from USN, only 3 more to deliver.
4. OPV - no certainty to even get a contract from Luerssen who didn't want to use ASB in the first place.

The USN ship building targets can all be achieved without the ships that ASB builds and it appears that the Australian Navy threw ASB under the bus by not selecting the Fassmer bid. My guess is the Aust Govt only realised late in the piece how bad it would look if ASB closed Henderson (a strong possibility) so that the Singapore based Civmec could move in.

It takes a long time to win naval ship contracts and there is a distinct chance that ASB will no longer be building ships for any navy after 2021.

The fact of the matter is that if ASB is left only to build ferries then it will be worth a fraction of what it is now. A whole bunch of one off $100 orders at 5-6% margins is not going to sustain this shareprice.

ASB will need a lot of luck and a distinct change in the views of the Aust and US Govts to their Naval products to derive any financial benefit from the advantages Switzer highlights above.

Anyway, I hold but my reasons for holding seem to be less likely as time moves on. I am considering selling now.