Ok, good reply. At least you openly admit you are happy to tell everyone to get stuffed and stick by your principles. To
@MarsC, 'emulate' did sound like sucking up, I just get the feeling, that like myself and
@croasian you did not come from the usual financial analyst background. I also enjoy your faux grumpiness.
To answer your question about independent thinking, my portfolio does not look like any index, or anyone other individuals portfolio for that matter. Sure maybe the 'emulate' was flattery but
@madamswer is very good. I have looked over many quant models* and his are the best I have seen - credit where credit is due.
I don't think fund managers are infalible and I imagine there are plenty of average fund managers working for mum and dad investors at the big instos (most are tracking the index). Many/most analysts and brokers are spouting rubbish, particularly the rubbish that gets to free media. Most HC posters are writing garbage on speculative mining or technology stocks. It should be said SHJ posters actually seem like a pretty sensible bunch that use fundamental analysis. There are a small percentage of posters on HC that are excellent investors and make this forum valuable. I often follow your stuff, because along with a few others, you are logical (well, in your investing), use fundamental analysis and don't succumb to groupthink. However, to suggest that small independent fund managers, or fund managers at institutions like Platinum, Forager or Bronte are not cutting the mustard is absurd. These guys are smart, work hard and have done this every day for decades in some cases. To disregard this competition would be nonsensical.
I would put your thumping returns down to three reasons; skill, courage and luck. You are obviously skillful in your analysis and have courage in your conviction, but you seem to discount luck. All successful investing requires an element of luck. To deny the element of luck in a successful investment is the worst type of hindsight bias. With any investment not all of the facts are know and randomness will play a pivotal role in the outcome. I will give you some non-group think - acknowledge the role of randomness in successful investing and plan your portfolio around a range of potential outcomes**. Now that you have a good nest, diversify by industry and geographical location of company earnings. If you are going to short sell limit the size of the positions as it is completely different to long investing. One blowup on long won't send you broke, one blowup on short can and has in many cases led to very smart people going broke. Just my 2 cents worth - take it or say I am a fool, I don't mind.
Lastly the UK seems cheap, in particular domestic facing stocks. Dignity PLC is the largest listed funeral home/cremation provider and has a business model similar to IVC. It probably doesn't have the same quality as IVC as the market share is about 15% vs 40% from memory. But it is so cheap. It is around a third of the cost of IVC using a number of models such as EV/EBIT. It looks heavily indebted, but the debt terms are incredibly friendly to the point of being outrageous - there is no way debtors are sending DTY broke. The only risk is their prepaid funeral insurance and because this insurance fund's investments are outsourced and the company does not have control over this aspect directly. One of the larger investments by these externally managed funds are high yield bonds in developing countries. In other words about as stupid as you can get at this point in the cycle. This last factor will come down to randomness - but with so many valuable physical assets and so much cheap cash flow on offer it looks very attractive.
Finally, well done to you for smashing the market, just grow it now and try not to lose it. Then you can retire young and quit being a wage slave. That is my own plan.
* Being a mathematics/physics graduate I love quant models
**Many fund managers like to say it was our awesomeness that lead to excellent returns this year. Though, on the bad years they are happy to blame it on luck.
