Hi @LightForce I don't disagree at all with those numbers being...

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jord@n

503 Posts.

21/08/18

11:19

Post #: 35058716

Originally posted by LightForce ↑

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4

1 FY18 FY19 (Target) Comments/Assumptions

2 Revenue $878.70 $949.00 Assume 8% increase in revenue

3 Underlying EBITDA $97.60 $105.43 Assume same underlying EBITDA Margin

4 Underlying EBITDA Margin 11.11% 11.11%

5 Interest $14.20 14.19 4.7% interest rate on $302M debt. Assume no increase in further debt as cash flow from operations is enough to cover capex requirements.

6 Depreciation & Amortisation $27.90 $29 Assume slight increase in D&A.

7 Net Cash from Ops $65.6 Assume CFO is enough to cover capex ($74M capex in FY18 but will reduce to $50M).

8 Capex $70 $50

9 Profit Before Tax $62

10 Tax $19 Assume 30% (should be less than 30% in FY19)

11 NPAT $44 This has not taken into account the $10-$13M cost reduction, which will then increase the EBITDA Margin.

The news that will appear next August is: Greencross has increased profit by 112% for FY19!

Expand

Hi @LightForce

I don't disagree at all with those numbers being very possible. My more prudent profit target factors in a margin of safety to reduce downside risk, as I'm always happy to be surprised on the upside!

GXL Price at posting: $4.02 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Add GXL (ASX) to my watchlist

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
1		FY18	FY19 (Target)	Comments/Assumptions
2	Revenue	$878.70	$949.00	Assume 8% increase in revenue
3	Underlying EBITDA	$97.60	$105.43	Assume same underlying EBITDA Margin
4	Underlying EBITDA Margin	11.11%	11.11%
5	Interest	$14.20	14.19	4.7% interest rate on $302M debt. Assume no increase in further debt as cash flow from operations is enough to cover capex requirements.
6	Depreciation & Amortisation	$27.90	$29	Assume slight increase in D&A.
7	Net Cash from Ops	$65.6		Assume CFO is enough to cover capex ($74M capex in FY18 but will reduce to $50M).
8	Capex	$70	$50
9	Profit Before Tax		$62
10	Tax		$19	Assume 30% (should be less than 30% in FY19)
11	NPAT		$44	This has not taken into account the $10-$13M cost reduction, which will then increase the EBITDA Margin.

Hi @LightForce I don't disagree at all with those numbers being...

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