Two weeks SethDepth looks terribly fragile at this point and...

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coppashaft

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22/10/18

19:59

Post #: 36215887
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Originally posted by Seth Davis: ↑

The massive emphasis on the license extension is controlling the SP and causing distortions in perceived value. Current holders are stagnate and not willing to purchase higher as they wait for the license, this is causing the SP to trade range bound and is deterring fresh buying from non-holders. The non-holders are watching and questioning every piece of information instead of viewing the current knows and seeking phenomenal value.

Same thing happened with BGL when it was trading 17-20c, Viago lode was just shaping up and a few of us were screaming its praises to mute response. Fast forward, everybody wants a piece of BGL and market participants aren't questing or seeing any negatives.

I believe ADT's problems have more to do with group perception than terrible fundamentals. As BGL has proven, perception can change in a blink of an eye and you want to be there when it happens.

Uncle Soros reflexivity theory is probably on the money here:

"I contend that financial markets never reflect the underlying reality accurately; they always distort it in some way or another and the distortions find expression in market prices. Those distortions can, occasionally, find ways to affect the fundamentals that market prices are supposed to reflect."

Even without the license extension, the company is currently worth +$200m - unfortunately it will probably take the granting of the license to get it there.

And on the probability of the extension being granted: why is the company preparing drill pads off license in advance?

A very patient
SethD

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Two weeks Seth

Depth looks terribly fragile at this point and time so a major drill intersection is priority, and giving the time it takes to get results back from Ireland the northern extension could be 3 months away from seeing anything.
That's a long time for retail to keep holding this friggin thing up like they have been, need a big result and fast but I am not sure how they can better what they have been sending out.

I hope its not the market telling us they didn't like the leaks and swiss cheese reporting, anyway they need to pull a rabbit and quick, otherwise she is down hill

ADT Price at posting: 44.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Last $4.10		Change -0.100(2.38%)		Mkt cap ! $918.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$4.15	$4.18	$4.05	$2.359M	574.4K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	5000	$4.07

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$4.20	5541	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1197	0.835
1	5000	0.815
3	9950	0.810
2	21000	0.805
6	46713	0.800

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.840	40000	1
0.850	14746	1
0.860	9795	2
0.875	9168	2
0.880	17293	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 26/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

ADT (ASX) Chart