The massive emphasis on the license extension is controlling the...

The massive emphasis on the license extension is controlling the SP and causing distortions in perceived value. Current holders are stagnate and not willing to purchase higher as they wait for the license, this is causing the SP to trade range bound and is deterring fresh buying from non-holders. The non-holders are watching and questioning every piece of information instead of viewing the current knows and seeking phenomenal value. 

Same thing happened with BGL when it was trading 17-20c, Viago lode was just shaping up and a few of us were screaming its praises to mute response. Fast forward, everybody wants a piece of BGL and market participants aren't questing or seeing any negatives. 

I believe ADT's problems have more to do with group perception than terrible fundamentals. As BGL has proven, perception can change in a blink of an eye and you want to be there when it happens. 

Uncle Soros reflexivity theory is probably on the money here:

"I contend that financial markets never reflect the underlying reality accurately; they always distort it in some way or another and the distortions find expression in market prices. Those distortions can, occasionally, find ways to affect the fundamentals that market prices are supposed to reflect."

Even without the license extension, the company is currently worth +$200m - unfortunately it will probably take the granting of the license to get it there. 

And on the probability of the extension being granted: why is the company preparing drill pads off license in advance? 

A very patient

SethD