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Once again another fantastic, in depth analysis. It's nice to...

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Mkennett93

47 Posts.

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07/08/18

03:48

Post #: 34761342
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Originally posted by olympian ↑

Hi guys

Am in Oz short while then off again to the high country before return here for DFS result.
Have been watching closely but not posting cos I obey the laws inc when they saw no VPN.
Retain full core holding of PGM but have been trading the obvious PPs for a bit of baiju money.
Will give u my 3 cents gut feel worth below.

CLQ .... under support line prob heading back toward cash backing now that the smoke is clearing and only mirrors remain. Looks like only 50 mill cash left with not much to show for it and at high burn rate which will prob necessitate further cap raisings soon to keep the high profile going. The DFS numbers are not attractive but if they change their direction, suspect market will decimate them.

AUZ .... ditto ....with about 20 mill cash left and high burn rate. Tech line in the sand at 8 looks shaky and gaps to fill well below

Both chose the big story and now paying the price. I have stood well clear

SCY never a serious hope cos of LOW Sc grades and hence high 2000/kg project price.

PGM has stayed clear of the Ni-Co LATERITES story and remains true to Sc focus for now while others do all the hard and costly yakka on Co-Ni. Sc GRADE IS KING so expect PGM to be KING off Scandium and my money has always been on PGM being the FIRST in the group to produce something. Further suspect these high grades may now give it some advantageous process method flexibility (?) Time will tell Pirra. Build it and they will come cos they are only effectively building a commercial pilot plant to produce commercial quantities for obviously several interested to assess. Suspect several potential offtake partners looking for commercial size will test and quickly follow with supply commitments to trigger later modular expansion of the Sc plant sited at Condobolin by the Lachlan River. Interesting to note PGM will not have any water issues tho others might if they stick with current MO. Water has never been an issue for mine.

OK lets stick with PGM in here since it is the PGM forum, unlike what some who have no skin in the game have been abusing. Again these are my OPINIONS based observation, experience and gut feel keeping in mind global macros and survive and thrive GORM for them who remember.

Cornucopia Fundamentals

OWENDALE

Scandium

We will be King of Scandium and likely first to semi / full commercial production. Anyone interested in commercial Sc will be closely looking at PGM and large pilot plant quantities for their own trials. Looks like we have spent about 3 mill effectively on our pilot plant which is providing desired results.
We have best GRADE and likely LARGEST PRIMARY RESOURCE with DFS on track for completion by EOY. Love the latest infill results. Wonder if they allow lower capex process options away from HPAL ? We have nailed the process site and assets on an initial frugal lease basis. Wise. Should be easy to show serious PER driven potential as world accepts us as the prime commercial source of Sc. If you believe in Scandium, PGM is THE investment in primary Sc from here.

Cobalt-Nickel.

It is obvious high grade laterites extend well beyond the dunite as was the original expectation but for starters, these will only be opex reducing by-products in a Sc focus and will allow significant flexibility in our Sc cost and hence pricing ahead. We missed the early promo Co hype and hence ability to raise spec cash like the other two but if you think about, PGM's direction choice now provides PGM a stronger non-dilutioned base cf to the others. It may well be that no further share cap raising is required and we move straight into PF for a Condobolin based, modular Sc production facility, expandable with market demand. This is a most important consideration for us long termers. A separate Co-Ni project can always be introduced once the commercial economics are proven viable by the others spending all their dilutionary capital. Long termers would remember Owendale was considered the jewel in the crown by original holders and PGM's parent, HLX which had first option at the whole region inc Sunrise/Syerston and Flemington. Owendale may contain more Co-Ni than CLQ's Sunrise/Syerston. Flemington doesn't rate for mine.

Platinum

Parent HLX ran from cents to about 8 bucks a share on the original Pt discovery at Owendale. PGM already has half a mill ozs Pt known at Owendale and latest drilling shows it extends well throughout the laterites in the shallows as well as depth. Who knows we may have a separate million oz Pt project emerging here. If so, wouldn't take much for a separate 100K oz pa Pt production low capex project at Owendale coming outa left field sharing common infrastructure. Lets see how innovative the new boy is going to be.

SKAERGAARD

This remains a sore point with me and on which I will base the success or otherwise of current Board and my investment in PGM. This was Mosig's baby and he IMO remains the most capable of unearthing its treasures. Whatever is decided here, I would prefer to see Mosig still involved at least on a project management basis. My concern is that current directors or new shareholders don't appreciate the wealth creation potential for PGM shareholders offered by Skaergaard. PGM ran from 16 to 187 on THIS project back in 2009 when Owendale was on the shelf. Surprised that given the AUD price evolution of Palladium and Gold since, this is NOT the prime focus of PGM. I hope the Board is capable of proactively preparing this prime asset for max returns to shareholders in the coming precious metals / forex wars.

Gold

2013 Scoping study defined 6 mill ozs JORC within a 10 mill ozs broader envelope

Palladium

2013 Scoping study defined a 9 mill ozs JORC resource within a 30 mill ozs broader envelope

2013 scoping study was completed and with previous GRD Minproc preliminary study, project inc mining and processing parameters were defined but shelved pending better metal prices. Guess what, AUD prices are SIGNIFICANTLY better yet Skaergaard has remained on the shelf. ???????????????????????

Vanadium

Skaergaard also hosts a MEGA vanadium resource next to Europe's hungry demand but which has not yet begun to be assessed. V is hot atm just look at KRC's recent activity.

Skaergaard IMO should be separated, in-specie distributed to shareholders in a new vehicle, listed in a better understanding jurisdiction which appreciates such mega projects, with enough IPO capital raised to fund it thru to DFS ......... prob 15 + mill for say 25- 30 pct equity sacrifice. Such vehicle would have initial value 50 mill with 15 mill cash to bring a defined 15 mill oz precious metals JORC resource to DFS stage. Anything LESS than that should NOT be acceptable to serious shareholders. Sprott or like would be all over this. The fact that NOTHING has been done to date along these lines suggest to me future skulduggery is a possibility. I cant imagine the world's number 1 producer of Pd (as by-product to their Nickel production) viz Russian Norilsk, wouldn't be keenly interested in JV or outright purchase of a PRIMARY Palladium resource on their doorstep ........ but AFTER DFS maxed out shareholder value.

This has always been my positon on Skaergaard and I am grossly disappointed nothing on this seen to date. I would love to party with Ras in Moscow helping to bring this home. But new boyz now to break in.

Sooooo am grossly disappointed at what IMO has been POOR POOR handling of one of the best available resources evolution plays on the ASX and the way it has been allowed to be demolished by market misunderstanding .... cos of NO EFFECTIVE PROMOTION OR MARKETING OF THE COMPANY AND ITS ASSETS. WHY?

Lets see what from here. Skaergaard and Owendale are both big projects and should be capitalised separately for shareholders max value. Do that and I am sure you will see a change in shareholder opinion and support for starters.

I an NOT happy with the board's handling this year to date and don't know the new guys or their ability to do justice to our cornucopia of major assets that could/should IMO properly give us a billion buck market cap if handled correctly. However, current ridiculously low sp / mc offers serious opportunity for setting up for serious returns ahead, so there is a silver lining to this cloud. Technically we are fourth time testing the mid 7s support line and any more lack of direction, misunderstanding or skulduggery could see us heading for a further gap filling drift.

Personally am now on alert for additions to core ahead of new trading parcels on reversal confirm of s/t downtrend.

Opinions with extreme prejudice (OWEP)

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Once again another fantastic, in depth analysis. It's nice to have you back Oly, even if only for a short while.

PGM Price at posting: 7.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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