EVG 5.41% 3.5¢ evion group nl

re: Ann: Further Delays to Financing Las Lagu... Hi Young trader...

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  1. JID
    3,568 Posts.
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    re: Ann: Further Delays to Financing Las Lagu... Hi Young trader and Dot,

    Not locked in at all. Met with BJ and his team and I was very confident in both the LL project and the Ecuadorian one.

    This, IMO, is exactly the same situation (conceptually) as another investment I have/ am making lots of money on, AEU.

    Different sectors but same theme. A company with specific/ real/ solvable issues that caused it's share price to be distressed to the point of significantly undervalued.

    In AEU's case it is still a work in progress but it is progressively derisking its business (landlord of childcare centres formerly leased to ABC Learning).

    In both cases the underlying assets are worth far more than the market cap implies.

    In both cases there is a clear line of operations/ tasks to derisk the business.

    In both cases I talked with management and was impressed with their capabilities.

    In both cases the macro sector is good.

    In both cases a worst case scenario liquidation would have limited downside due to the asset value (and resulting sale price) relative to current market cap.

    In EVG's case there is blue sky upside in Ecuador project. I am very confident that this will be big.

    In both cases the time line is relatively short to derisk project... <12 months in EVG's case

    In both cases there is an expected series of events (and subsequent market announcements) that will rerate the share price progressively over time. (ie not waiting and hoping forever).

    I still think there will be SP weakness in the ST, but note the volume is hardly relevent... $20k in trades per day at best vs. $25m market cap.

    My timeline is 36 months for a 3-4 fold gain.

    Reason I bought at higher than market prices was that the volume I picked up couldn't be bought on market < 8c per share (IMO) and BJ needed the bridging finance to keep LL on track... win-win all round I think.

    Now it's just a matter of patience and let the boys do their job.

    The large holders of EVG aren't selling and if anything more smart money is coming on board recently (eg Shairco, Macquarie Equities, a large offshore individual investor for $1.5m, myself, if I can include myself in this category :)

    BJ has a large holding and is not willing to uneccasarily dilute current shareholders. Current series of capital raisings is due to Mac Bank incompetence (IMO) and will be kept to a bare minimum to keep LL on schedule.

    Project slippage on LL is far more costly (in terms of months of delayed production) than the current equity raisings that, when the Mac Bank funds are finally made accessible, will be withdrawn from LL and applied to Ecuador (a well defined possible company maker) for which funding would have been eventually required for anyway to drill, JORC, plan, etc prior to strong LL cashflows being available.

    Cheers
    John
 
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Last
3.5¢
Change
-0.002(5.41%)
Mkt cap ! $7.980M
Open High Low Value Volume
3.8¢ 3.9¢ 3.5¢ $35.37K 969.7K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
2 260020 3.4¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
3.5¢ 56079 1
Last trade - 16.10pm 08/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
EVG (ASX) Chart
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