I agree Esh, it is surprising that CMM is so heavily discounted, however, I do also think that the likes of SLR/DRM/RMS/MOY are also discounted, as while they do not have significant reserves like CMM does, they do have plants that are fully paid for and built and commissioned. Yes they have short mine lives, but so far, none of them have run out of ore. They just find more.
So when you look at the E/Vs and the numbers you mention in regards to CMM and once it has its plant built and the debt, then E/V will be closer to $200m. Yet right now:
SLR has an E/V of just $170m.
RMS has an E/V of just $145m.
MOY has an E/V of just $135m.
DRM has an E/V of approx $160m.
So while I do think CMM is cheap, its also... not. Of course, the exploration potential is there for all the companies and you are also right, CMMs deep drill hole shows the deposit goes very deep. So it probably should be valued more than those listed above.
The above companies do indeed need to spend $$ on exploration and that inhibits their ability to return profits to shareholders, but then, out of all of the companies I watch across the ASX in the gold sector, only the big end of town every pay a dividend. I wonder if in years to come, CMM might be able to break that mold.
The hedge is indeed going to be interesting. I wonder what the forward hedging prices look like in 2019-2020 onwards. My guess closer to AUD $1820-1850. As you say, with an AISC of around $1050, the margins are huge. If building and running a mine was less difficult, its a wonder they don't just hedge all 850k of the gold at $1800, hedge the fuel and produce profits for 8.5 years.
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I agree Esh, it is surprising that CMM is so heavily discounted,...
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