Hey madamswer You seem to have followed this name in some detail...

Hey madamswer

You seem to have followed this name in some detail and have gone to the trouble of doing some working cap analysis; therefore I respect your concerns. After all, since it’s peak in the late 2000’s, BOL has had numerous false starts - this could be another instance.

However I think that if activity does sustainably pick up from here, the upside is far larger than what your analysis suggests - and this is by far one of the best ways to play the East Coast infrastructure / renewables boom.

In 2009, the end of the last peak, the business delivered 69 mil of EBITDA with 504 mil of gross PPE (@cost). Subsequently Archer made a bid at 51 cents a year later.

Today the business has 375 mil of gross PPE -   whilst the annualised 4 mths ytd suggests the business is only running at 24 mil EBITDA - there is plenty of upside. When equipment availability gets tight, prices rise and payment terms improve. (Think EHL/Westrac). Seen it happen too many times.  

Personally I am trying to figure out whether the infrastructure projects ( as highlighted on page 13 of the AGM) all actually need cranes ...