@NoPunditHere, Yes, but I knew that my forecast was out some...

@NoPunditHere,

Yes, but I knew that my forecast was out some weeks back already, because the company provided a balance sheet update on 11 July, after which in which I ate some humble pie, as can be seen in:

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-refinancing-and-market-update-bol-ax.2810187/#post-18243668

The difference between my modelling of the 30 June 2016 net debt, and the actual position as revealed in the company's July update, was the fact that they ceased liquidating the fleet during the half, and they ended up with a greater working capital investment than I had expected.

As for the full-year result (i.e., really what transpired in the second-half), at the operating level it beat my expectation. JG2016 EBITDA was $4.4m, up from $2.6m in pcp.

Although, it warrants pointing out that we are operating in the realms of small arithmetic bases here, so to be up 70% on pcp is not as meaningful a turnaround as one might think. But, it is still an improvement, nonetheless, I suppose.

As it happens, with my BOL investment thesis no longer intact, I have just this morning sold the last of my BOL stock, having made very little return on my investment over the past 2 years or so. And that's despite buying shares at price levels well below today's prevailing price.

So for me it was a bit of an opportunity cost, with a high effort-to-reward ratio.

The stock might continue to rise because the demand for BOL's services might improve at some stage soon, but I'm not very good at anticipating that sort of thing.