FIG 0.00% 2.0¢ freedom insurance group ltd

Ann: Freedom announces business restructure, page-9

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  1. 323 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 11
    That was a decisive call and cutting off loose ends minimising costs and to satisfy regulators. I think you can applaud management for that.

    My first thoughts a very quick and rough impression so forgive for any mistakes:

    -suspension of sales means it will be a loss making year, regardless of restructure costs
    -if we simply take book value of $67m at the end of the year
    -take full year trading result - and assume worst case scenario of no sales for remainder of year, assume sales to be $15m (take ly 60m / 4 x 3), expenses will be at $30m expenses if reduced by $15m (ex restructure), ebitda will be $15m, $20m including restructure (did i say rough and dirty). Im ignoring indirect sales here.
    -so book value will be $47m by end of year. Minus say $3m for goodwill etc . Say $45m vs market cap of $30m.
    -trail assets - what could it be worth now? Management didnt declare it, and thats fair enough given they havent been audited, but they havent provided any assurance other than working their best to protect it.

    So at the moment potential is 50% upside by year end if it plays out as per above, but could be vanished as they drag on with their loss making business. So the sooner they act the better which they seem to be doing, and they may start earning revenues thru other diatribution channel.

    Now St Andrews deal, i cant help but think that it wont be a saviour. You get what you pay for and its hard to imagine its a hugely value incremental adding business.
    Short term i dont know where it will be headed. Long term i dont think it will be a multi bagger, certainly not worth the risk it comes with.

    Will have to look closer
 
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