Originally posted by marketminer
I looked at the revised report, and I don't think they would decrease or increase their bid based on the document. Looks like ASIC made them strike out all the adjusted valuation numbers, but not the reasons or the rationale, including some of the strong language used by Grant Thornton. Not sure what the point of the whole thing was then, if ASIC disagreed with the analysis, they would have made them pull the whole report, rather than just some of the adjusted numbers, right? I'm more troubled that management and BDO haven't responded to the actual issues raised by Grant Thornton, makes me think they don't have a good response
Anyway, I'm more concerned about the share price trading down to the offer price this week. I like the sector and these assets, but I also don't want to ride the stock down, think I might accept the offer and buy back in when the price drops after offer ends.
As I said recently, I don't think you can be sure that the share price will go down if Golden withdraw. Yes, conventional wisdom says it will, but there's another equally valid conventional wisdom that says conventional wisdom is often wrong (and, interestingly, that is mathematically provable!). My feeling is that there is a strong possibility that the share price is being kept down by the Golden offer - that is, there are people reluctant to buy while there is a 0.95 offer in case the offer succeeds. As soon as the offer is withdrawn, those fears disappear. It may be worth noting that with the bid having been on the table for 2 months, the initial price surge when the offer has been made has now been outweighed by the loss of 2 months' progress in the share price, viz: 6 mths May to Oct the share price rose about from 0.65 to 0.95 or 2.1%/mth compound [*]. After 2 more months at the same rate, share price would be 0.99 - that's markedly higher than today's price.
[*]-Share price fluctuated markedly before the bid. It looks like someone forced the price down from 0.95 to 0.83 just before the bid was announced. Very very suspicious price movements IMHO. I suspect but can't of course prove that Golden were playing it illegally. I do despair at ASIC's inability to police crap activity.
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