DCN 1.88% 40.8¢ dacian gold limited

I would be lying if I said all the volume was attributable to me...

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  1. 7,303 Posts.
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    I would be lying if I said all the volume was attributable to me

    Have been buying all I can in expectation of the March/June quarters getting close to their targets. The big end of town only buy after the news, and that is why the likes of SAR is simply flying now that they have proven themselves.

    DCN management seem to be a cut above the rest in their section of the gold market, so... for them to keep sticking guidance is not because they are cocky, but instead, because they have to date, met almost every single milestone they have announced. A rare thing in this sector.

    Of course, I do think that the news-flow over the next 3 weeks is also going to be quite important, in setting up the second half of the year to meet their guidance. I know @nordesmic put up an excellent spreadsheet showing that its going to be tight, but... I think the grade is going to jump a little more than Nord expects (just going from the company announcements regarding grade from the U/G).

    Also I think they have been strongly hinting that Cameron well will allow them to increase the throughput of the plant, to at least 10% higher than it currently is, so... 2.9mtpa to 3.19mtpa (my speculation, although the report by EagleRes also supports this). I think the mine plan is going to change when the new reserve for Cameron and the rest of the U/G gets announced soon. I am less sure if they would be capable of getting it into production before the end of the June quarter next year, but... considering how shallow the resource is to date, maybe that is why they are so confident?

    What I really like, is that DCN has a very similar E/V to GOR (GOR still has lots of money to put into their project before the cash starts really flowing), yet... has a higher production profile (50% higher), owns the asset outright and in all likely hood, will have a mine life similar to GORs in the next 2-3 years. I think DCN declaring commercial production is a formality, however, they are leaving things neat and tidy so that their first full quarter of production reportable in AISC for March will be a good one.
    No one wants their first AISC to be $2000 AUD etc.

    I wonder if DCN is tempted to hedge a bit more gold around current prices?

    Good luck to all holders.
 
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