SaberX When I copied my spreadsheet to a text file, I dropped...

SaberX

When I copied my spreadsheet to a text file, I dropped the leading 4 in column E of the last row (Motive Project), recording it as $0.900m, rather than $40.900m. The Motive row should read:

Slated to complete FY17 – calendar 2016 ......... 143 .. 143 ... 81.8 ... 0.572 .... 40.900

The sum of the rows should be $200.624m, as stated earlier.

In respect to Motive, as at 30 June 2016, 65 sales were made in the 143 unit development. I have assumed that because the project would be completed in calendar year 2016, that all the rest would be sold and settled before 30 June 2017. However, on thinking about it, I now consider this unlikely – perhaps 75% would be settled by 30/06/2017, which in approximate terms requires a downward adjustment of $10m to reduce the final estimated revenue total to $157m, rather than $167m.

I arrived at that 25% by using Arbor North as a precedent – about six months after completion, there were 38 out of 154 units not settled, and 38/154 = 24.68%. Your suggestion of assuming 25% of all not-settled units would not settle in FY17 has merit. Thus, of my original gross total of $200.624, we could guesstimate revenue as $200.624 x.75 = $150.468m, or $150m in round numbers. That is a metric with which I feel more comfortable than my original $167M.