Read the business plan in full, as i posted previously perhaps...

Read the business plan in full, as i posted previously perhaps this plan was thought up pretty quickly as something different and not sound as much like another poor mining spec at the time.

Apparently there is market opportunity in Australia substitute MOP for SOP by undercutting imported expensive SOP via local production. Sounds plausible? There is some overlap in use however for the most part their crop use is very different. Further the price differential remains solid or has further increased if you take recent low ball MOP pricing. This means GPH would have to discount their SOP price even more to gain market share. And why should a company do this with a strong asian market and pricing? Not to mention how this would actually work in practice. Are GPH going to start their own distribution business as well?

The current SOP market in Australia is 50% to 100% below GPH's production aims. This is a clear marketing problem for a business trying to pay off capex in early years, more so than an opportunity. Reading the CMP (US listed) production reports depicts volatile volumes from qtr to qtr due to volatility in crop prices, SOP prices and external competition. And this is in a market an order of magnitude larger than Australia. So any new SOP entrant must have the capacity for export imo. The supply aussie farmers mantra for me is just a marketing angle.

Going quick and small is normally a sound business plan. Start cash flow, gain financial and market traction, expand and push down costs. Much better than drilling holes for ever. The trade off is normally the small operation will have higher opex and capex intensity than a larger operation. This again is at odds with the business plan to supply reduced price SOP to local users when investors/bank want a payback.

The crystal peak capex is just the trenching, it is not the full capex. So plugging in A$100M capex with A$600/t received is not going to cut it. They need to be well under A$100M for me to change opinion, and even then would still need to talk up expansion cases to catch EVs of peers. If the resource supports a production range of 200-400 ktpa as per other peers, then you can quickly see that GPH could be trading at these levels or higher just initially. Much better for financing and reducing dilution than financing a lower payback small plant with a small market cap....

Reminder again that there is currently no pure SOP production leverage on world markets in stable places. Put something palatable to the market for financing would have to attract multiple and strong offers to get off the ground.