You may be right in your two thoughts, namely: a) there is a large buyer and a large seller with a small gap between their prices; and b) this steadying effect on the SP may last some time.
I do not trade stocks in the sense of hopping in and out, so my financial interest is short-term SP movements is low. However, I look at my portfolio at COB each trading day. For TGA, I regard a 2c swing in either direction as potentially meaningless in that the average for the day may be 60c, but the closing price may be over 1c from that. When I wrote that post I did not comment on the average for the day, because the 250,000 unit transaction at 59.2c would have dominated the average, which was $215,443/364,177 = 59.16 cents.
I also look at the number of buyers and sellers. If there is only 1 buyer heading the buy list, and many heading the sell list, I expect the buyer to hold his nerve, and some sellers to capitulate. However, this does not accommodate buyers and sellers who continually pop into the play, so what I expect will happen often does not.
For me this is a trivial guessing game. I am partial to guessing all sorts of things, often just for amusement. If I set off on a long journey, I'll guess how long it will take. If I am making concrete, I'll guess the quantity of the ingredients to do the job. If I want to check the time, I'll guess what I think it is. If I calculate something, I guess the approximate answer first.
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