Yeah you are right, however they can still redeem themselves. The key now will be to get the non-equity component in place on favourable terms hopefully boosting the sp.
The (fair) alternative is to make a renounceable rights issue (with no other placement), at whatever price they like, even $1. I'd be quite happy for a 1 for 2 at $1, provided outsiders didn't get snouts in the trough.
However AOE have proven savvy operators in the past - far to early to write them off.
Imho AOEI can't come to the rescue in time. It needs to be done patiently, whereas the LNG funding needs to be done with the FID.
EL
AOE Price at posting:
$3.31 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held