Without doubt, financing is the no1, 2 & 3 reason for this hit to the share price. I really do wonder what management were thinking in the months leading up to the feasability announcement. They must follow other would be developers and seen what worked and what did not. You had the likes of BLK who overpromised but was able to raise a huge amount of capital ( almost enough to even fund CMMs entire project, yet theirs was only supposed to cost $35m), then you have DCN who raised $130m (with another $140m in debt), GCY raised $55m, plus $60m debt, PGO... raised not much, yet needs well north of $150m, probably closer to $160m, and has no chance in hell of doing it.
CMMs E/V is around $39m right now. Which is pretty damn low, as you mention compared to its peers. In fact, not many peers even have 700k of reserves. Perhaps CMM could have gone for a staged development? Stage 1, 1.5mtpa plant, with bolt on at the start of Year 3? Reduce the capex to closer to $100m?
I guess I am still waiting to see what others think might be possible?
In the end, I think CMM will have to simply go with mmoores option 1, small raising, continue to drilling. Perhaps prove up 1m ounces of reserves in another 9-12 months, then when sentiment is better (hopefully), do a big raising, and get it out of the way. That or, do the almost unthinkable, merge with a current producer and get the mine built. I highly doubt it will happen, but.. could be the best way to ensure holders are not diluted to death, plus see production occur much earlier and see a dividend etc.
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Without doubt, financing is the no1, 2 & 3 reason for this hit...
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