Unfortunately the technical price picture for CMM is now looking very weak. Could drift down to A$0.06 or even lower. The CAPEX of A$146m and AISC of A$1025/oz (Compared to GCY CAPEX = A$86m & AISC = A$931/z) is not particularly economically attractive and will make bank funding hard work. I suspect bank funding of around A$80m will be the maximum which means around a minimum of A$65m of equity will be required. At the current SP this will result in very heavy equity dilution (around 902m shares) making it an even less attractive investment. So what can they do:
1. More exploration to increase size and quality of R&R.
2. Success in 1 to increase LOM
3. Optimize metallurgical processes and reduce OPEX.
4. Wait until POG > US$1500/oz
5. Items 2, 3 & 4 will increase NPV and FCF profile and substantially improve fundability
6. Employ financial PR to work hard at increasing SP to at least A$0.10 but preferably to > A$0.20
Once done CMM will look a lot better. Until then it is bye bye from me.
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