Originally posted by kvsae
Bit of a sell off today in to .002s.....Leaky ship or someone had enough??
So I have a [conspiracy] theory, (all IMO - not fact based)... here goes...
Someone wants the SP to be kept at 0.0015
When there were buys at 1 and sells at 2 - someone put a cross trade through at 0.0015, the SP sat at this for ages. Then some buys went through at 2 and soon after a cross trade appeared again at 0.0015.
Buyers started buying at close auction, when a buyer at 2 appeared, a sell at 1 appeared. The seller always pulled their order at the last moment - letting the buy go through at 2. Presumably they did not want to give up any shares, but probably annoyed the SP remained at 2?
A 10mil sell in the 2 queue was pulled once it got close to being hit.
Then similar games occurred at 2 <> 3, with cross sells at 0.0025
Today's movements around 12:13 and 12:15pm were 2 x separate sells:
1 x 8.8mil
1 x 2.5mil
Then a few more to clear the remaining 2 buy line. Probably some nervous retail helped there,
Now we're back at 1 <> 2,
I'm going to guess tomorrow, there will be a cross trade at 0.0015 (selling to themselves at the mid point).
My conspiracy theory is that we'll see a raise coming (we know there isn't much cash left in the coffers), and the raise will be done at 0.0015. ROG probably want the SP maintained at 0.0015 for a few days/week so they can take a 5 day VWAP as the raise price. The shares issued will be placed with a friendly, who can get a load of cheap shares at a discount.
This could be a sweetener for a JV partner or part of the acquisition deal (just a guess)? But the price seems to be being manipulated IMO - I'm curious to see that 0.0015 cross trade tomorrow and the closing price!
Separately - there is a 50mil buy in the 0.001 line, getting closer to the top. Today's movements could be the result of someone who wants in BIG at the 0.001 price?
50mil, would make this buyer a Substantial Holder.
There is only one Substantial Holder of ROG right now -
Bilal Ahmed.
Bilal Ahmed is in the Top 20 or a Substantial Holder (>5% holding) of the following other ASX Stocks - based on last years Annual Reports/ Substantial Holder notices (not including his super-fund holding which goes under the name of
BAB Super Fund Pty Lty)
OVL
JAT
WFE
RDN
SRO
MSE
AJM
As far as I can tell - all of the above have done pretty well from the time he bough in (except SRO), showing that Bilal Ahmed is a pretty astute investor.
(Disclaimer - I hold WFE and researched Bilal and his brother - Suffian Ahmed's investments), it's what got me interested in ROG, when I saw his name come up.
So I think it is all games being played by bigger powers at the moment. All of the above is
My Opinion Only.
Note - I have emailed ROG tonight, questioning them on when we'll be updated on the acquisition. Keep the pressure on.
Cheers
MSN
(20min delay)
