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APC still remains the cheapest entry into the Australian potash...

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john435

11,111 Posts.

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27/03/17

13:50

Post #: 23649492
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Originally posted by FiendishRedbeard ↑

Good to see APC has dumped pretty much all of their original flawed business plan of just supplying aussie farmers.

The scoping study is exactly in the right direction, larger capacity with expansion possibilities. Capex is still manageable and less onerous than peers, although more expensive per tonne basis which is what is normally expected for lower production rates. The MOP conversation was a surprise, but makes sense if you can make additional margin for limited incremental costs, as Compass sometimes does. Obviously you would only do this when the difference between SOP and MOP allows.

It does look like APC need plus US$600/t SOP prices to get up and running so its important to remember that SOP is middle to late stage in the commodity cycle, more new wealthy middle class eating higher value food and drinks. Hard to see any slowing in the demand or appetite for possible new entrants.

Also, see AMN release possibly using solar to lower power costs. Would expect all other peers to follow suit albeit with alternative suppliers.

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APC still remains the cheapest entry into the Australian potash brine players .I suspect that some of their highly valued peers will find their own CAPEX a bridge too far .

Last edited by john435: 27/03/17

APC Price at posting: 11.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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