Great presentation and some new insights regarding profit margins.
For Advanced RWS they expect:
Global market size of US$800m pa>five years (management estimate). EOS should capture the first $1b of orders, and take 40% of the remaining $4b over the next five years. We do it far better, they say, and there are NO short term competitors.
R-400S-Mk2 profit margin 10% ($250k price - $225 production cost). I suspect they downplay the profit margin. You don’t want to alert potential customers.
So, in the next 5 years they expect 2,2 billion USD in sales. That’s 2,95 billion AUD. Based on the conservative profit margin this results in a profit of 295 million AUD in the course of the next 5 years. 150% times the current market cap…
Of course, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. But if, as promised, the company announces contract-orders in the next 2 quarters of more than 500 million, thereby validating it’s industry leading Advanced RWS technology, the skepticism will fade and the share price will rise to it’s potential.
Then we have the EOS R2000 Remote Turret System.
Global market size > US$11b from 2018-2025, management estimate, and 20% market share. Profit margin 10 % ($1,5m price - $1,35 production cost). This would also amount to a profit of 295 million AUD in the course of this period.
And last, EOS Space systems.
The potential market for data is large, >$2b from 2019-2029 based on customer budgets.
If EOS fulfills it’s promises the current share price is still small change.
Cheers
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