Here’s some statistics, as I see them.I’ve seen some posters...

Here’s some statistics, as I see them.

I’ve seen some posters talk about ‘fair price’, and even Tanami themselves in their prospectus seem to get that wrong, suggesting you dilute your holding by about 40% (they mean 44%) if you do not take up your entitlements.
It’s more.

Assuming nothing else changes, and we’re just looking at the previous and expected share prices (Autosime and pesa and other already mention added risk etc, so I won’t go into that):
If you held 4 shares, there’s now going to be 9. 4 divided by 9 is 0.44 (or that ~40% people (and Tanami’s prospectus!) allude to). However, that’s what you’ll have left, not your dilution. 1 – 0.44 = 0.555, or 56% for the actual dilution (Copydog, you were wondering why the share price already fell by 55%?). Take the original share price of 65 cents, drop that by 56% and the ‘fair value’ is about 29 cents. The stock should eventually ‘recover’ to 29 cents if we all think the market cap should remain the same.

Is this it? Probably not! We’re now adding 5 shares for only 20 cents each. Here’s where the discount comes in, and the market cap will go down.
4 x 29 + 5 x 20 / 9 = about 24 cents.

Then imagine all these investors who bought a stack of 20 cent shares, with the share price potentially sitting at 24, and having never seen a profit come out of TAM. What are they going to do?