Correction Timber I believe that what I was reading early this...

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30/09/14

11:28

Post #: 14048080
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Originally posted by Timber7 ↑

Hi Surfrat,

A good strategy is to wait until the minutes are published from the Sept meeting for clues. These are not available as yet, only agenda and highlights. Having said this, there is no guarantee that details will be published due to commercial sensitivity. Further if the details are published they may not answer our questions. I am continuing to wait for re-entry, given exit at mid 20s.

I see a risk of impairment against inventories which stand at $10M. They cant sell a single batch until early-mid CY15 which unfortunately coincides with the June 2015 expiry date for VitroGro produced back in early 2012. You'd have to expect that continuing stability testing will extend the shelf-life to completely remove this risk. There will be ramp-up time as well - inventories will not immediately clear. If some of the product does expire it will destroy shareholder wealth.

Additionally a CR will need to be done next year given current burn vs cash position. If not, then they will be relying on a positive CE outcome early 2015. By my estimates there is ~4.8M in the bank. Its amazing to think that the Nov 2013 CR comms were "Q2 CY14 CE approval". Now "early 2015" - blown the business case for CR out of the water. In the previous CR it was also stated that the proceeds would allow the company to "fulfil its strat-objectives through to Q3 CY14"..and here we are. No rush to accum/enter.

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Correction Timber I believe that what I was reading early this morning was the full set of minutes available on the ema site.

TIS Price at posting: 28.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Correction Timber I believe that what I was reading early this...

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This biotech stock raised $11M in a risk-off environment. Its Alzheimer's drug could change the game

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