Morning Guys, Thanks for you input guys; BrassTacks 1, I...

Morning Guys,

Thanks for you input guys; BrassTacks 1, I appreciate your insights from face-to-face meetings and Dr Jonathan, I appreciate you imparting your technical expertise to a layperson !

All I can do is bring commonsense, and in this case it seems to me that the upside potential is large, in part due to their "proof of concept" at T3 and in part due to the analogous cluster that CC has surrounding T3 (and T20).

Secondly, this upside comes with limited downside risk as the value that the market is ascribing to MOD is a fraction of the NPV value of the current T3 project, not even accounting for the prospect of this increasing in value due to (a) T3 UG and (b) feed from T1.

Like you guys, I think that M&A is a real risk for MOD shareholders (or an opportunity depending upon your timeline). Personally I would prefer the LT approach and possible multi-bagger return vs. a quick 30-50% premium from a TO. There are very few opportunities like MOD for an investor presently.

Assuming MTR are wanting to allow MOD the opportunity (and them the upside) of finding enough Cu to become a >$1B company, the most sensible way to defend against a hostile TO is to vend their 30% of the project into MOD and take shares. This would mean they become a cornerstone shareholder with a 36% stake ... more than enough to block a lowball TO offer.

My personal view is that the greatest value can be added to MOD for the least risk via the drill bit. As DML and many others have shown, moving from exploration to development for a junior without the requisite skill sets and capital is a major risk for shareholders.

I would like to see the DFS completed, based on the UG resources at T3 and possibly T1 feed too, and then drill-baby-drill. There is a possibility that in a short space of time MOD could have a multiple of their current R&R and that would surely reflect in the SP.

The tea leaves are all there for people to interpret - the Cu sector will move into supply deficit in a couple of years and producers are launching TO bids across the sector:

(1) FND
(2) AOH
(3) AVB
(4) NSU

Another predatory name to throw out their is Lundien Mining which is currently bidding for NSU but through a complex structure that could well be defeated. His companies have no fear of Africa (e.g. Africa Oil) and the company is cashed up.

Freeport may also be a candidate as they have seen the issues of operating in certain jurisdictions lately too.

Other interesting companies for investors to look at include STM (exploring in Ecuador with an asset in Scandinavia) and DGR for their exposure to SOLG (Ecuador) that, providing you can handle the lack of liquidity, trades at a fraction of their SOLG and other portfolio assets and is run by the MD of SOLG, Nick Mather.

Cheers
John