NVA 0.00% 23.5¢ nova minerals limited

Ann: Drill Results Report Gold Mineralisation at Officer Hill, page-16

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  1. 3,387 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1485
    Just looking at potential value of the Newmont JV in 5 years ...

    My thoughts if they were able to define the resource to a 2 Moz au base. Might be the point that they decide it is economic to start trucking ore 40km to Callie for processing. Now with underground mines they progressivelty develop - but that can be expensive (underground development). They would want to know there is a sizeable resource there before they start mining it.

    On those assumptions, assuming they define a 2 Moz resource and convert 50% of this to a reserve, i.e. 1 Moz. Perhaps a reasonable Life of Mine of 10 years so 100,000 ounces pa. They would then expand it.

    These are some rough numbers on that scenario. I've assumed a few things below.

    I think this could equate to NVA income of AUD $28.3M, on a P/E 10 would equate to a market cap contribution of AUD $288.3M ( big assumption here ). Now it's hard to estimate a share issue in 5 years time. Some much will happen. But let's say it's 2.5B. Would euate to EPS $0.115 and at a P/E of 10.0 would be $0.12 contribution to share price ( not bad for an asset they only own 30% of ).

    Now of course Newmont could buy out the asset before this, perhaps paying NVA in cash or shares with a small royalty. Buyout figure would depend on how much of a resource has been defined and whether studies have confirmed the deposit is economic. $$$ in the bank would be fabulous for funding growth.

    All blue sky stuff because so much needs to be done. Of course Newmont wouldn’t be having a hard look at it now if they didn't think there was strong potential.

    Resource 2,000,000 Ounces
    Reserve 1,000,000 Ounces
    LOM 10
    Production PA 100,000 Ounces
    Gold Price (USD) $ 1,450
    AISC (USD) $ 758
    Margin $ 692
    EBITDA PA (USD) $ 69,200,000
    Exchange Rate 0.72
    EBITDA PA (AUD) $ 96,111,111
    DA (assumed @ 10%) -$ 9,611,111
    EBIT $ 86,500,000
    Tax @ 30% -$ 25,950,000
    NPAT $ 60,550,000
    NPAT (NVA share @ 30%) $ 28,833,333
    Contribution to MCAP (10x) $ 288,333,333
    3,000,000,000
    EPS $ 0.0096
    P/E 10
    Share price contribution $0.10.
 
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