Just looking at potential value of the Newmont JV in 5 years ...
My thoughts if they were able to define the resource to a 2 Moz au base. Might be the point that they decide it is economic to start trucking ore 40km to Callie for processing. Now with underground mines they progressivelty develop - but that can be expensive (underground development). They would want to know there is a sizeable resource there before they start mining it.
On those assumptions, assuming they define a 2 Moz resource and convert 50% of this to a reserve, i.e. 1 Moz. Perhaps a reasonable Life of Mine of 10 years so 100,000 ounces pa. They would then expand it.
These are some rough numbers on that scenario. I've assumed a few things below.
I think this could equate to NVA income of AUD $28.3M, on a P/E 10 would equate to a market cap contribution of AUD $288.3M ( big assumption here ). Now it's hard to estimate a share issue in 5 years time. Some much will happen. But let's say it's 2.5B. Would euate to EPS $0.115 and at a P/E of 10.0 would be $0.12 contribution to share price ( not bad for an asset they only own 30% of ).
Now of course Newmont could buy out the asset before this, perhaps paying NVA in cash or shares with a small royalty. Buyout figure would depend on how much of a resource has been defined and whether studies have confirmed the deposit is economic. $$$ in the bank would be fabulous for funding growth.
All blue sky stuff because so much needs to be done. Of course Newmont wouldn’t be having a hard look at it now if they didn't think there was strong potential.
Resource 2,000,000 Ounces
Reserve 1,000,000 Ounces
LOM 10
Production PA 100,000 Ounces
Gold Price (USD) $ 1,450
AISC (USD) $ 758
Margin $ 692
EBITDA PA (USD) $ 69,200,000
Exchange Rate 0.72
EBITDA PA (AUD) $ 96,111,111
DA (assumed @ 10%) -$ 9,611,111
EBIT $ 86,500,000
Tax @ 30% -$ 25,950,000
NPAT $ 60,550,000
NPAT (NVA share @ 30%) $ 28,833,333
Contribution to MCAP (10x) $ 288,333,333
3,000,000,000
EPS $ 0.0096
P/E 10
Share price contribution $0.10.
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