Interesting post oz.
Just looking back at the early news, and yes the original target is described as sub-horizontal, and you can see they originally planned to drill it with a NE azimuth, which was later changed to NW. So uncertainty there perhaps lends weight to the "missed it" argument, especially with the off-hole conductor having a NW dip. Obviously, had they known that they would have drilled to the SE.
So I can't really say one way or another with certainty as to whether or not they missed it. The company said they could explain the conductor and haven't now retracted that. Their description of the core for the conductive intervals is vague, so without seeing it we don't know if it is sufficient to explain the conductor or not. I tend to think they didn't miss it, but content with counter-opinion. The fact they said there was no graphite after the initial logging of the core doesn't do much for confidence based on their words.
Either way, strong off-hole responses for down-dip elements of stratigraphic conductors are common - you can chase them to the depths of the earth. We now know there is graphite and pyrrhotite in the hosts, so a punter has enough info to allocate odds. Still worth drilling, though.
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