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Good luck mate. Personally I see more downward pressure to the...

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ckchristian

1,759 Posts.

204

04/07/18

17:34

Post #: 34141122
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Originally posted by BobF ↑

"... The only thing certain from this announcement is this is minimum 12 months away from any sort of Demo or working chip. ..."

I disagree. Where is any indication given that such a timeframe is even a likelihood?

You imagine that this could be a possibility, but that is the most you can say based on this announcement. Possible yes. Certain? No way! The probability of that being true at this point of time is completely unknown, but the flavour of the announcement would, in my surmisal, seem to make it maybe 10-25 %, no more. That is my guess for what its worth, and that is all it could be, a guess.

It may well turn out to be the case that this slow progress has taken AP by surprise. It may be that Fred is putting a brave face on a significant setback. His announcements often seem to me to be a very abbreviated and not very informative gloss-over of the technical details and a broader picture that many of us would love to hear a lot more of. Or it may be that the progress is edging closer to the closing development stages he describes - and which were always going to be needed - but how he has put this announcement together has simply made it sound like the wheels have fallen off the wagon and he is trying to cover that up. He likes to sound confident and reassuring, but his last comment is such that he is going to have to produce significantly better news - soon - or be accused of concealing a larger level of failure than he has.

" ... While significant improvements are clearly evident in each new wafer received, at the time of this announcement the wafers received have yet to reach the qualitative levels that are required for the company to play complex music at the anticipated sound pressure levels. The vendor is continually working on fine-tuning the process to achieve the required outcome, with an upcoming shipment of newly refined wafers due this coming week. To ensure the success of this overall effort, the vendor has additionally inserted many dozens of additional wafers into the production pipeline.

Accomplishing the noteworthy milestone of being able to begin the acoustic characterization of our devices is a strong indication of the significant progress being made over the past weeks. ... "

Fact: AP has updated us with an announcement before they have definitive results.

That is a major improvement in my book. I now expect further updates and better news to be made available more frequently.

Fact: the device plays sound.

This probably indicates the device has been interfaced and packaged with the ASIC. This has not been confirmed but certainly could have, and should have, been clarified if finished chips are the devices under test or the raw MEMS. More info definitely needed on this.

Fact: the sound quality is not yet up to expectations.

Suggestions that a frequency sweep or playing tones is not relevant is to miss the point. The fact that it can do these things does not mean it cannot do anything else. But the rest of the announcement does clearly indicate that it does not play complex music adequately - yet. But it does say that progress is being made. Lets face it, this is the first time anybody has ever done this.

Fact: TJ is clearly going out of its way to help and to get the product working.

We can only imagine the tension in the air as the work around this is being discussed and addressed. Fred's reference to "the vendor" is both complementary but indicative that AP is putting heaps of pressure on them to deliver - and soon! And they are clearly doing everything in their power to do so.

" ... Our devices’ unique architecture at times imposes limitations on the use of conventional fabrication equipment and processes. This necessitates the vendor to devise and introduce alternative methods to the fabrication process. The vendors’ efforts recently have been focused on refining specific substitute methods they developed and adopted to complete the final steps of fabrication.

Implication: the news is essentially good but not entirely in line with everybody's patience levels.

The result: panic selling.
I've just changed my sentiment.

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Good luck mate.

Personally I see more downward pressure to the share price as more people de-risk and sell some of their holdings.

What will tomorrow bring? You could be right and there’s a buying frenzy...
GLAH

AKP Price at posting: $14.32 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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