He has been around for a long time and seems smart to me. In fairness to him I don't think he said "crumbs" I think he said they are fighting over "contracts" maybe? Anyway, I took his point as not that there isn't a lot of revenue, just that it is already 'priced in' so these firms will perform in line with the market as opposed to being outperformers.
I guess I view it like we need to hear the rationale of why smart people think the company is fairly valued now because it helps with conviction to buy from them when they sell or hold when they sell and hit the price (assuming we don't agree). It helps to explain why the market settles on a price now we might think is a bit cheap.
My take on his view isn't anything new! Just that he's right to some extent but it misses out:
- The mining services cycle is actually early mid stage, not late, and may bring more than visible now
- The infrastructure potential is not really factored into the SP beyond Golding maintaining current small infrastructure work levels
- The economic outlook potentially supports even more new infrastructure work over the coming years (IMO, not everyone agrees)
- Factor X: Positive outlook for 5 years combined with the momentum and investment in tech and skills leading to some 'second degree' ideas (as a few people have alluded to on HC): good stuff happens to good companies when they get tailwinds and they are hard to predict but worth attributing value to when you are holding already and considering if your company is fairly valued. The Golding acquisition would be an example.
Bring on that report, can't wait! Will be poring over every word
Cheers
pb
NWH Price at posting:
$1.73 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
