Once again, this is a lot of assumptions. Firstly, the dividend...

Once again, this is a lot of assumptions.

Firstly, the dividend assumption, not necessarily true, it depends on free cashflow and the amount of debt the company is happy keeping plus the terms of the debt.

In the past, Ian middlemas has done EXTREMELY good debt deals, look at SBM.

Furthermore, the company isn't necessarily based on dividend yield ratio, or else it would be worth zero right now. The market is forward looking, 7 years may be a long time but then it will be a cash cow looking to build further mines.

Takeover is one option, might happen, might not. Nb price may rise or may drop or may stay stationary. These are all based on your assumptions on how successful the stock is.

7 years to turn $10000 into $40000? that's a rate of return of 20% YoY.

you're saying that's a bad investment? has upside too.