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85.0¢ australian leaders fund limited

I dont think they will be getting taken over or changing their...

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Sharkies63

127 Posts.

9

01/09/18

14:52

Post #: 35348441
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Originally posted by peejay2 ↑

I think there is light at the end of the tunnel in some form or another....i just dont know in what form !
Under Justin for the last 3 years, the return has been woeful. I dont think many will argue with that !
So, what can change ? A. They are going to realise that their strategy hasnt worked and change it... (any change has to be for the better)... b. Someone takes over ALF and frees up the portfolio like WAM has with WDE, and the share price rises near NTA, or c. The market collapses in a big heap and all the shorts produce a massive windfall ( ha, ha...). I say ha...ha.. because what you could possibly make of ALF, you would lose far more on the rest of the market ! Some who have bought recently are hoping that the gap btw the SP and the NTA will close and some may have even made a small gain..... but that will only happen if the managers perform....and they havent for some time.
Another fund manager could also be brought on board and “refresh” their management style and actually make money ! I have been with ALF when it was making good gains and giving good dividends (bring up a chart and see the decline over recent years). I guess my error was taking my eye off the ball and believing that as ALF had been performing so well for so long, that they would continue to do the same. Justin would not then have been the “leading hand” and would only have been one of the analysts, so things have changed for the worse. It is now NOT a straight long fund as it was... NOW its a long/short fund, but not even run very well at that. If you see their % of longs and shorts, they are almost equal and unfortunately, neither are performing at the moment.
My beef is not that I am losing heaps of money (although I am through opportunity cost and the fact that the share price is below my buying costs) but that nothings happening ! Its not a case where there is any impropriety such as BIG, its just a case where management is not carrying out their role in a competent manner !
Its the frustration of seeing “supposedly” qualified money managers doing the same thing over and over for the last 3 years with absolutely no positive result. Only a fool keeps making the same mistake time and time again, expecting a different result. Geoff Wilson is NO fool and his funds produce good returns, dividends and a growing fan club. This is represented by most of his funds trading at above NTA.
You’ve got to ask yourself.. (and its fairly easy to answer), why the share price of ALF is so far below NTA !
Here endeth the sermon !

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I dont think they will be getting taken over or changing their strategy anytime soon. So the third option is the best chance for things to turn around (market crash)
Not so much because their shorts will kill it.. But as you pointed out they are near market neutral so all thing being equal in a market crash of say 25% you would expect them to be pretty flat or slightly up.. which whilst happening would remind people why their is a place for these strategies in a portfolio.

Problem is not the strategy.. it's as you said that they are not very good at implementing it compared to their peers in the long/short space who have much better records.

ALF Price at posting: $1.07 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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