Vinny, Justin undoubtedly is a smart guy, but that doesnt...

Vinny, Justin undoubtedly is a smart guy, but that doesnt necessarily translate to smart decisions. steve Johnson of Forager is a smart guy too who looks at the psychology behind the decisions he makes to see if there is any bias which influences his investment decisions. He is very self critical and whilst he sometimes loses, he frequently wins big time with unloved or misunderstood stocks. He is probably more contrarian than many others.
A rocket scientist is also a smart guy, but once again that doesnt translate to him or her being a good investor.
Justin may be smart, but his investment thesis over the last 3 years that the market is going to fall out of bed and “into his lap” hasnt worked out, but, he hasnt had the psychological intellect (like Steve) to adjust his thinking and adapt to beat the market. His almost equal shorts and longs (and mis matches) has led to one of the most mundane performances of almost any LIC over the last 3 years.
No-one is paying a premium for ALF, not even NTA. If you look at Steve and his funds and Geoff and his funds and look at their thought process and success over the last few years, thats why investors are paying a premium for FOR and WMI.
Yes, ALF did have a good performance and gave good dividends previously, but I dont think that Justin was the leading fund manager then, he may have been the copy boy at the time, but under his management, a graph of the ALF share price will tell you how successful his management has been..... it aint !
Geoff Wilson at his Future Generation conference in 2017, where he invites Fund Managers from numerous firms to give their tips for the following year, stood up and tipped AfterPay as his tip for the year. That was off the cuff.
Had you taken his tip, you would be hundreds of percent ahead, possibly even more !
You will note that ALF had a small rise recently, but I dont think it was anything significant that Justin did in a positive sense although ALF actually outperformed for the month rather than underperform.
If he were to be replaced... then... you would see a spike in the share price.
Why did the share price rise ? It was probably just wind !