I do agree that it's a game of probability. It's entirely how I...

I do agree that it's a game of probability. It's entirely how I view this stock - something like a 2 in 3 chance of doubling your money ( I reckon there's at least a 2 in 3 chance of avoiding a 'no deal' brexit)  and 1 in 3 chance of a hard brexit, ie losing significant amounts of money. Thus I reckon it's a pretty good bet. I just want to be cognisant of the potential downside too, even if it's unlikely to occur at this stage.