Ann: CYBG PLC - First Quarter 2019 Trading Update, page-24

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LawyerTrader

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07/02/19

12:22

Post #: 37361969
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Originally posted by madamswer ↑

"I know you're a value investor, but are you not at all worried about the macro-picture or the prospect of hard Brexit?"

In its essence, true value investing is agnostic to the macro-picture.

Of course, while computers which have no emotional intelligence (well, not yet, anyway) may be able to totally ignore the daily bombardment of macro-picture commentary or news flow, no human being would be able to be that intransigent.

So, while I fancy myself as a value investor, and I design my investing process around a disciplined valuation framework, being human, I cannot ignore the macro-picture.

And so, whether I like it or not, I do implicitly have some macro view (even if it is only very broad-brush) when it comes to CYB in the context of a post-Brexit world.

And that view is that the short term is totally indeterminate (i.e., I really have zero idea what the next few weeks and months around Brexit might look like, or what unforeseen events might transpire).

However, in my investment in CYB I do take the view that, once all the dust has settled (however much dust gets raised in the short-term), in one, two or thee years from now UK businesses and households will be back to doing what they have been doing for hundreds of years, namely going about their business and lives working, learning, consuming, entertaining, holidaying, purchasing new cars, clothes, furniture, technology etc., investing, expanding, constructing, renovating, and generally continuing a long history of initiative, enterprise, and aspiration.

And turning to financial institutions such as CYB for the capital to fund for all those economic activities.

I guess you could say I am agnostic short-term macro-picture, but confident of a return to normality over the medium-term, which is my investment time horizon.
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Many thanks for your reply. Your posts are a breath of fresh air.

It may well be the case that all the bad news is priced in, and when Brexit finally arrives, it will be a catharsis of sorts. The sun will rise, people will go about their daily lives, and investors will wonder what the fuss was all about.

Clearly cheap compared to what it was a few short weeks ago, fundamentals are strong, and just crossed above the 5o day moving average. What's not to like?

CYB Price at posting: $3.74 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: CYBG PLC - First Quarter 2019 Trading Update, page-24

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