Honestly, I have no inkling what the market is up to. I'll leave that to the wizardry of traders.
Fundamentally Madamswer demonstrated about a year ago, how the loss of Woollies to BP wouldn't effect CTX negatively due to the other avenues of growth and their metrics. I only understood about 4/5 of that analysis, but it made a helluva lot of sense, and it's such that I wouldn't have been able to derive those arguments myself.
Coincidentally this is the third time in 3 years that Mad Adam and the broker analysts I trust (note that I don't trust my brokers agents at ALL, Ijust use their analysts) have agreed on timing and company (other two times were NCK 18 mths ago, and CYB couple years ago...check those results).
So, IMHO, take that complicated analysis, by Mad Adam pick through it with a fine tooth comb;
add 15 years of Caltex/Wollies partnership ALMOST DOUBLING outlets (more fuel AND more tucker).
... Add also the reduced risk from NOT charging onto Foodary outlets (those were the ones you bagged despite that many of them wouldn't have had the posionous fumes u were so concerned about) they'll be a little occupied expanding their Woollies outlets with added fumey flavour.
... Add the wholesale relationship and the Woollies marketing machine helping CTX costs/sales, that's advantageous at both ends.
My best, albeit incredibly weak, guess to your question about why I think the market detracts generally at the moment, is that maybe it's from the toing-and-froing of OPEC and The Orange One. (I'm in a goldie that has a similar problem, of a very strong recent fundamental ann and weak SP action...that all I can think of to blame is an underreaction by the market because of gold generally ), 'cause I can't think ofany other reason.
So what's ur theory on why CTX is dog after this announcement? Let the SP not guide us, gimme something fundamental that says this won't rebound with a vengeance.
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