In this environment it's a tough ask for any company to farmout and the time limit sure as hell doesn't help. If they manage a farm out it won't be anything like what you've got there. I'm not even sure it'll be for Laurel gas. They might go after cheap shallow oil to meet the commitments with a mind to deepen them if Buru's work Laurel work is encouraging. The FMG farm in was worth about ~$15M. Something like that is a bit more likely, where the first two years might be covered with seismic first year and a 1-2 cheap wells. I would assume REY tries to finance something similar if OBL fail.
I'd see it more along the lines of $4M seismic, 2 x $4M wells, $3.5M sale price if they can get it bringing it closer to $15-$16M. Maybe one $8M deeper well... I don't really see them getting a two deep well $20M+ commitment in this environment. They might even get covered for two calendar years of work, not two commitment years now the commitments have been delayed. *shrugs*. And some of the money might come as a placement in the company increasing the farminer's equity in the block and diluting shareholders (not that holders would care, would be worth it unless it was a crazy amount)
I'd say the above is the more likely scenario however you never know. If Buru strike it big this year the sentiment might change just for that area of the Canning and might make a farm in easier if people think there are more Ungani style dolomites in the north (there probably are). Buru will have well and truly wrapped up their campaign by the farm out deadline so maybe it's not as bad as it should be (although they'll also be competing with Buru for farm outs for next year). Then again if Buru totally fail this year it'll make it even harder to attract money.
Anyways, I certainly don't see them attracting $30M, $40M etc. It'll be done on the super cheap.
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