I see your point re OVH but my numbers suggest that the synergies are much higher. I personally think they have not disclosed the full extent of those so as to not spook the "workers" - this process is a long one and you dont want to start losing talent.
I spoke to a couple of people in the industry these were the summary of those points that we could get consensus on:
1. The synergies are much larger and in fact by combining the business should be delivering positive cash flow from the first quarter they are merged.
2. The one person knew a few of the players in both companies and suggests there is a good mix between them. They felt that a team would emerge that would be very powerful into the future.
3. All 3 did agree that OVH gets a better deal than DVA on pricing but DVA has holes in its offering so OVH creates a more complete unit...
4. The problem is that DVA are or seem to be finding it very hard to find acquisitions and organic growth is slow and the process to gain market share very slow. MGP are in the same boat
5. OVH is getting a far better valuation from the market - but maybe that's fair because it has a larger array of toys to sell. Certainly OVH seems to market itself far better than DVA...
I think your investing style mirrors our with a bit of a gamble on the side that you may not do.
A friend overseas publishes these 1 minute radio shows:
"If a portion of the cost of my lottery ticket goes to schools, then I can say that I invest in education. After the drawing, win or lose, my share is back to zero.
That’s how stock markets now function, or so it seems. We buy shares to be sold if the price is up and to be sold when it is down.
Shareholding no longer reflects our interest in a company and its affairs. It reflects our short-term interest in its short-term share price.
Time was when shareholders went to the harbor to see their ship sail and to see if it came in. Not so long ago we funded a venture because we were interested in the business. Our share was actually called an “interest.”
Our economy will remain fragile as long as we buy shares of a company, without sharing an interest in the company."
I think it tells a story - many today seem to buy on momentum or hype ... Few are looking for an investment they are just looking at the scoreboard thats how a company ( my opinion) like AJX can go to above a $ only for the excitement to run out and drop way back. There are some very committed investors there but many just want to see it keep going up with no correlation to its journey towards success.
AVX is a very early stage company and I don't believe that currently its a logical investment its an adventure. The players involved are very interesting however.
