SEA 1.25% 19.8¢ sundance energy australia limited

This "cheer squad" also correctly forecast 2019 capex and...

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  1. 2,345 Posts.
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    This "cheer squad" also correctly forecast 2019 capex and guidance for 2019 which is bang in line with SEAs.

    I am certainly in love with stock, as I believe I fully understand the risk levers (liquidity, oil price, cost control) - but this is where the opinion of non-holders is extremely useful.

    Liquidity - we've been through enough on here, and is addressed in the latest slide pack. Dimmit is the final catalyst, and I am expecting a sale by 1 May 2019 (redetermination date of next revolver)

    Oil price - from the reports I've churned through, basically opec (saudi especially) is a swing producer. They determine their targets based on forecast oil demand less forecast oil supply. This is how they set the 1.2million bpd reduction. Saudi have cut more aggressively than required to meet their target, quite possibly to compensate for a change in consensus to their demand forecasts from slowing global growth. The key thing here is Saudi are happy to do what it takes to ensure a balanced market.
    The why is simple - They need oil at around current levels to balance their budget.

    Cost control - I will be monitoring the the 2019 capex budget and operational costs/boe closely. As long as SEA delivers that, then liquidity risk is mitigated.

    Upon taking ownership of SEA, I am exposed to the risks above, but I also gain control of the business, and cash flows (which will drive the share price in time).

    Not sure why the share price is where it is, quite possibly because people like yourself are in the majority. For some reason you became a seller, without any change to the fundamentals. Perhaps funds have been cycling out of energy (but the majority of this would have occurred in October 2018).

    My reasoning is the market does not like leverage (risk), but rewards those that bear risk (corp finance 101).
    You just need to look at the returns BPT delivered post acquisition (the point it had peak leverage).

    I hope you stay on this forum though and continue to point out the risks you see fit. It is certainly good to understand the views /risks from a non-holder for a reality check perspective.
 
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