SEA 1.25% 19.8¢ sundance energy australia limited

A2020,Capital intensive industry. Can always increase FCF by...

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  1. 6,312 Posts.
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    A2020,

    Capital intensive industry. Can always increase FCF by decreasing Capex. First thing is what amount of Capex required to keep production constant. Next is how much Capex is for "Growth" and what %growth do you get. Third becomes what Capex needs to go to infrastructure to support the business ... some invest more (& sometimes because they have as no 3rd party will) in pipelines etc.

    Boils down to what metric (EV/EBITDA or FCF Yield or ....) is best ... IMO an average of the average of the like peers.
    What price are you willing to pay? 6x FCF? What growth rate?


    MMP

    LONE 2019 EBITDAX midpoint $147.5M and EV of $623 implies EV/EBITDA = 4.22 and Debt/EBITDAX = 2.9 (using the Dec 31 EV)
    CRZO 2019 EBITDAX midpoint $681M and EV of $2.9B implies EV/EBITDA = 4.26 and Debt/EBITDAX = 2.4 (using the Feb 25 EV)

    an average of 4.25 for that multiple is not out of line for their closest peers.

    and if it helps, their version of a similar slide
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1466/1466744-610fa35d4794855dc0dbfdbcbe454a40.jpg

 
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