Your thesis that people invest in oil companies to capture a...

Your thesis that people invest in oil companies to capture a higher oil price is only partially correct. As the price of oil never continues to rise that would mean there would be no investors when the price of oil falls.

The simple secret to successful investing in an oil company is...........................

Finding a company that increases the amount of NET oil backing each share outstanding. To determine that number you need to use shares outstanding, reserves, and debt.

It does no good to increase the size of the company while decreasing the amount of NET oil per share.

There is a direct correlation between earnings, growth, and the price of the shares when this figure changes. Even if the price of oil falls the company can increase value for shareholders by increasing the amount of NET oil backing each share.

WHen the number increses good things happen. When the numbers go in reverse, there are problems.

Given the current situation in the market I don't see the price of WTI going much higher than it is right now baring some unexpected incident. In fact I see the price of oil falling over the next 6 months to be well under $60 per barrel for WTI.