Pretty decent presentation.
No overt glamour, just a pretty honest snapshot of the company.
Especially slide 5 (corporate snapshot).
Then you have the forecast gold production going forward.
Basically, they produced 49,990 ounces in Mar/June (they are one ounce off what was in the quarterlies).
Meaning, 80k to come in Sept/Dec quarterlies. VERY SCARY.... as anyone who has been here a while (arguably we have all been here too long) know that by and large, BDRs forecasts are like my cooking.... bloody awesome and not worth sitting down for.
However..... that being said, I have posted already that I think, the new MD is having an honest crack at breathing life back into this very ugly duckling.... could she turn it into a swan? yeah... odds are not, but.. all respect to her, she seems to be giving it a fair go.
The AISC for Mar/June averaged out is about US $1250. Meaning, if BDR is going to hit their target of AISC $1050, the Sept/Dec quarters are actually going to be decent. Remember, the past MD is not in charge now, hes off in the Bahamas drinking etc. So by my very rough calcs, the current and next quater will average an AISC of just under US $950. This will, potentially, give BDR around US $20.4m in free cashflow, before admin and exploration, which could be around $4-5m? So... $15m US. They have some debt payments to make, so.... perhaps $8-10m end of the year.... which by then, the plant upgrade will be done and hopefully high grade gold is being sourced, plus the plant can be more easily fed in the wet. Especially when the 2019 forecast is 160k p.a. Which I think means perhaps 35k in the wet quaters, and 45k in the dry? Again, they have enough gold for approx 6-7 years already. Not the issue, just feeding the plant at a lower cost, which funnily enough is discussed in the presentation.
Am I ramping. hell no. I am down by a lot with BDR... but then its in my super and by the time I retire, the Australia government will likely require me to work until I am 90... so... whatever.
I also think they will likely do a cap raising sooner or later, but.. when...? Not sure, If they could be choosy, surely nearer the end of the year, when things are looking rosy.
One question I have for others, is about slide 13. regarding the reserves growth. They recently mentioned they will be redoing all the reserves/resources to the same price. Any thoughts on what that might mean?
Anyway, would be nice to see the quarterly surprise to the upside, but... then.. considering how little my expectations, that may not be that hard (yes its a way off, but perhaps we will get a production update in early Oct).
Expand
